Let
be the event that accident occurs.
Let and be the event that damage amounts to and of market value, respectively.
Given:
For expected gain to be zero,
$ 1029.6
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Let
A be the event that accident occurs.
Let M0.20, M0.60 and M1 be the event that damage amounts to 20%, 60% and 100% of market value, respectively.
Given:
P(A)= 0.15, ~ P(M_{0.20}|A)= 0.8, ~ P(M_{0.60}|A)= 0.12,~ P(M_{1}|A)= 0.08P(A)=0.15, P(M0.20∣A)=0.8, P(M0.60∣A)=0.12, P(M1∣A)=0.08
The expected gain of company, μ=x∑p(x)x=0.85p+0.12(p−4400)+0.018(p−13200)+0.012(p−22000)=p−1029.6
For expected gain to be zero, p=$1029.6
Answer
$ 1029.6
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