Solution

Let 

A be the event that accident occurs.

Let M_{0.20}, ~M_{0.60} and M_1 be the event that damage amounts to 20\% , ~60\% and 100 \% of market value, respectively.

Given:

P(A)= 0.15, ~ P(M_{0.20}|A)= 0.8, ~ P(M_{0.60}|A)= 0.12,~ P(M_{1}|A)= 0.08



For expected gain to be zero, p=\$ 1029.6

$ 1029.6



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