(E1.12) Election 2012 During the spring of 2010, the news media were already conducting opinion polls that tracked the fortunes of the major candidates hoping to become the president of the United States. One such poll conducted by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll showed the following results:
“If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and
[see below] were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would
you be more likely to vote for: Obama, the Democrat, or [see
below], the Republican?” If unsure: “As of today, who do you
lean more toward?”
The results were based on a sample taken April 9–11,
2010, of 907 registered voters nationwide.
a. If the pollsters were planning to use these results to predict the outcome of the 2012 presidential election, describe the population of interest to them.
b. Describe the actual population from which the sample was drawn.
c. Some pollsters prefer to select a sample of “likely” voters. What is the difference between “registered voters” and “likely voters”? Why is this important?
d. Is the sample selected by the pollsters representative of the population described in part a? Explain.
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